Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Correlation Does Not Mean Causation

The most common problem I have found with the arguments of anti-firearms folks is that they have confused correlation and causation. In other words, just because I stop eating vanilla ice cream when the price goes up at the ice cream store, does not mean that I quit eating vanilla ice cream because the price went up. I might have a newly discovered food allergy, or be tired of it, etc. This often gives psychology and sociology students headaches -- just ask them!

My point is that I have heard time and time again about how folks in the US have higher rates of homicides by firearms than say Britain (where there are "tough gun laws"). But in this case, Britain's rates were lower before these laws were established. How many other countries' lower rates may be due to something other than "tough gun laws?"

My advice is: Make sure that any figures you come across on your journey to prove one side or the other truly support your position, and aren't easily explained or refuted due to some other cause.

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